Can you read anything into warm-up matches?

Although the phrase "It's only a warm-up match" is used all the time, if you look at the warmup matches in the Champions trophy in 2009 the two teams that had big wins (NZ over IND and PAK ove SL) both teams made the semis with NZ making the final while India and SL both failed to make the semis. The indian fans in the cword were certainly celebrating as if they had won the World Cup already. So do you think we can read anything into the result here , or is it "only a warm-up match"?